The Goal of Azerbaijan in the conflict with Armenia

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In case you are wondering, what the conflict is all about. Here’s a clue about the ‘real goal of Baku’ from an Azeri publication, said to be controlled by the Aliev government. It appeared on December 30, 2022 in haqqin.az and has already been discussed in Armenian media, of course, as here at news.am.
Here’s the translation of the original from Russian into English:

A new stage in the national struggle: Western Azerbaijan article conceptual

Ilham Aliyev is laying the foundations for the second strategic stage of the return of Azerbaijanis to the lands occupied by Armenia. In essence, he formulated strategic directions for further actions to restore Azerbaijan’s interests in the corridor between the East Zangezur economic region and the territory of the Nakhchivan autonomy. In this regard, the next meeting of the president with internally displaced persons, but this time not from Karabakh, but from the Armenian SSR, can be considered a landmark in the outgoing year.

Deportation of Azerbaijanis from Armenia. A Wall of Silence

Points of view on whether the collapse of the Soviet Union was just and natural, as you know, differ diametrically. A direct consequence of the collapse, in particular, was the current Russian-Ukrainian war. One way or another, the echoes of the “voluntaristic” policy of the USSR in terms of establishing administrative borders are still felt in Azerbaijan, which suffered the most from the practice of arbitrary cutting of territories, motivated solely by political conjuncture.

The Azerbaijani communities of the western part of our country, which became part of the Armenian SSR, were repeatedly subjected to persecution. From 1948 to 1950, 100,000 Azerbaijanis were deported from the region with the assistance of the Soviet army; from 1988 to 1991, about 200 thousand of our compatriots were forcibly expelled by Armenian nationalists. We are talking about 305 settlements in 22 regions of Armenia, some of which are still not inhabited. The damage caused to almost 20,000 of the 50,000 families expelled in 1988-1991 has already been calculated. Accurate statistics (name, surname, patronymic) were collected for each refugee family, and a list of 130 most affected villages was compiled. This work is ongoing.
The main problem is that all these years outside of our country, the oppression of Azerbaijanis was silent. Only recently, in connection with the conflict over Karabakh, four UN Security Council resolutions were issued aimed at restoring the rights of the Azerbaijani population. These resolutions have not yet received practical application, but at least they contain specific information and political formulations. However, not a single international political institution or forum announced the problem of Azerbaijanis expelled from the territory of the Armenian SSR. Just nothing. Wall of Silence.

Ilham Aliyev’s confession, expressed at a meeting with the community of Western Azerbaijan, is interesting: “During the period of occupation, I often had the opinion that there was no justice in the world. I am sure that the vast majority of the Azerbaijani people shared this feeling, because it was hard to imagine that injustice could reach to such a degree. Despite the fact that we were absolutely right, we had to face such a wave of aggression against us, which did not fit into any framework … “»

Action Program

In political terms, the meeting with the community of Western Azerbaijan forms a new stage in the process of the “Great Return” of compatriots to the historical territories of our country.

This stage is more difficult than the war for Karabakh. To implement it, it is necessary to match the use of many tools and a number of circumstances that can form one or another “pattern”. They need to be anticipated, which is a more complex level of forecasting and managing international processes than it was even on the eve of the operation to return the lost Azerbaijani lands.

In the case of Karabakh, Baku easily solved the problem. Now we are talking about the next level of the game – a combination of long-term political steps, socio-economic measures, and principles of military training for the coming 2020s.

Here’s what to do first:

Create a reasoned information base in the media and widely cover the Azerbaijani position on leading international platforms. This also includes information work with leading socio-political and scientific centers of foreign countries. The position and argumentation of Azerbaijan should be weighty, understandable and accessible in different languages. Actually, this is how it was done in the situation with the Karabakh conflict; now it is only necessary to take into account the mistakes and omissions made in previous years.
Create a regular international forum dedicated to the problem of the return of Azerbaijanis to their native lands. An international conference on the problems of Western Azerbaijan, the idea of which was voiced by Ilham Aliyev, could become a formal organizational platform. In the course of it, an international legal form of Azerbaijan’s demands in connection with the realization of economic and social rights by it in the territories of present-day Armenia can be developed.

As Aliyev pointed out, this is necessary so that “this topic does not leave the agenda, but, on the contrary, is included in the international agenda.” Reasonably using the provisions of various international conventions acceptable for the situation, Baku will demand that its rights be observed.

Develop a concept and program for the socio-economic interaction of Azerbaijan in the region of the Zangezur corridor with all interested parties. This can be done within the framework of the platform for ensuring stability and development in the Caucasus, proposed shortly after the end of military operations in the fall of 2020. The pace and extent of the restoration of the returned territories will play a significant role in this process.
Strengthen military preparations near the borders of Armenia from the East Zangezur economic region and from the Nakhchivan autonomy.

A forceful argument for achieving peace

It is not necessary that the situation will force Azerbaijan to use military force in order to implement the Tripartite Moscow Agreement, but it is necessary to be prepared and consider such a possibility, including as an argument in the negotiations. The opposite side must understand that the military scenario is a very real prospect of Baku’s actions to implement its national interests.

Of course, Azerbaijan is limited in the use of military force on the territory of Armenia due to the sharp international reaction. On the other hand, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, the operation to bring in armed forces along a limited spatial corridor will not be a sufficient basis for critical pressure on Baku, comparable to what the countries of the Euro-Atlantic community are currently exercising against Russia.

At the same time, it must be said frankly: Azerbaijan will be able to withstand a number of economic sanctions, given that the vast majority of Baku’s trade and economic relations are formed in the Ankara-Moscow-Persian Gulf-CIS square.

It should also be taken into account that Europe is very heterogeneous. It is unlikely that France’s possible economic sanctions against Azerbaijan will be supported by Italy, which depends on supplies of Azerbaijani and Kazakh oil.

Also, one should not expect the withdrawal of Western companies from the Caspian fields. Let’s remember that they entered the South Caucasus region in the mid-1990s against the backdrop of a much larger number of contradictions and local hostilities that were unceasing from 1999 to 2008.

Naturally, as a result of such an operation, the connection between Azerbaijan and Turkey will further strengthen, but Moscow will also remain on the side of Azerbaijan, as it was in the fall of 2020. Of course, there will be a lot of noise and anti-Azerbaijani attacks in the Russian media. But one should not forget about the allied factors between Aliyev and Putin, as well as at the level of the military structures of both countries. Realpolitik is not done on television shows, but in quiet offices.

The Russian border units involved in the protection of the Armenian border will provide assistance in the field of ensuring the security of settlements, playing the same auxiliary political role that they currently play in the Lachin corridor zone.

But the implementation of the Agreement should not come to the step of military coercion if Yerevan agrees to move on to the practical implementation of the Zangezur corridor project and other political agreements regarding common borders with Azerbaijan. In this case, there will be an opportunity to resolve issues with IDPs and Azerbaijani refugees in a normal legal manner. You just need to move in that direction.

Armenia remains to adapt to the wind of change

The very threat of a military operation in Western Azerbaijan should push Yerevan to take practical steps. In the Syunik region of Armenia, according to the 2011 census, there are about 140 thousand people; in the city of Meghri (Karchafan) – about 4500 people, in Kafan – about 45 thousand people. In practice, much less. But still, these people can form a rather serious wave of refugees, much larger than the flow of those returning from the regions around Khankedi.

Political Yerevan must understand that persistence in the implementation of the peace plan will lead to a new war, but already on the territory of Armenia itself, and not on the territory of Azerbaijan, as was the case in the 1990s. Reasonable states in the 21st century do not wage wars, but seize opportunities or adapt. Armenia does not have the opportunity to fight now, but there is a chance to adapt to the wind of change with the least losses for itself.

Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev is listened to more and more attentively every year, and his statements form a program of action more effective than the Soviet State Planning Committee. Eleven years ago, at a meeting with IDPs in Aghjabedi, he said: “The day will come when you will receive and meet me in your native land, and I will come to visit you.” Then it was hard to believe, but now this statement has become a new reality.